By Zoe Deal Whatcom County home values have increased by about 10 percent since March last year, according to a national report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. This is the most recent addition to years of double-digit growth, which have brought the five-year home value increase in the area to more than 50 percent.
While Bellingham residents may not be surprised by these statistics, Blaine real estate agents say they don’t tell the whole story about north Whatcom County.
The county’s housing market as a whole is strong, ranking sixth in the state with 281 closings at a median price of $387,500 in April 2019, according to a report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
Hiding behind these generalizations are cities and towns with significantly different markets. Though Blaine and Birch Bay are growing, the area is seeing a less dramatic increase and a more modest median home value.
Peach Arch Real Estate owner Steve Mullenix cautions residents to be wary about all-encompassing statistics.
Just because home values have increased in the double digits for a few years doesn’t mean that the value of an individual home has increased over 30 percent. Higher-priced homes rise at a different rate than lower-priced homes, which are feasible to more buyers, Mullenix said.
Many connect Whatcom County’s population growth, and its resulting rise in home value, to affordability in Seattle, something Mullenix said is “over exaggerated.”
U.S. Census data analyzed by the Seattle Times in 2018 found that people leaving King County often don’t go farther than Snohomish and Pierce counties. Out of roughly 104,000 departing residents, only a little more than two percent make it up to Whatcom County.
Mullenix said his company has had more buyers come in from California and Canada than from the Seattle metro area. Even more common is the migration of current Whatcom County residents to Ferndale and Blaine as they get priced out of homes in Bellingham.
“There has been a push factor out of Bellingham to Blaine because of the price increase, but it’s not just because of people from Seattle moving up,” he said.
While rising home values sound promising for sellers, it has a direct impact on affordability for buyers.
Statewide, the housing affordability index (HAI) is at 104.1, according to a May 23 report by the Washington Center for Real Estate Research.
The report defines the HAI as the degree to which a median-income family could afford to purchase a median-price home. When index values are above 100, it indicates that housing is affordable to the middle-income family; lower numbers signal affordability issues.
Whatcom County has reported HAI numbers under 100 consistently for four quarters, with an HAI of 98.1 in the first quarter of 2019.
“The median-income family in Whatcom County has a hard time affording a house that would be comparable to their income level,” said Mullenix. “That’s a big issue.”
San Juan (56.7), King (75.8) and Snohomish (96.1) also scored low on the affordability index, according to the report, while Skagit County (104.9), Pierce (110.5) and Kitsap (117.9) have been able to maintain affordability in recent years.
It is likely that home values in Blaine and Birch Bay will continue to increase – just more slowly than Bellingham and Seattle.
Mullenix said Blaine and Birch Bay’s home values and affordability can be maintained if the area goes about it in a healthy way. He mentioned that recent developments in east Blaine are promising.
“The fact that we have the ability to build new houses should counter the demand,” Mullenix said. “I’m hoping that’s the case.”
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