Start of pandemic employment recovery shown in insurance claims

Claims for unemployment insurance in Whatcom County hit a pandemic low in the week of March 7 to March 13. With claims steadily decreasing since the New Year, the county has notched its lowest number of claims filed since before the pandemic.

According to data released by Washington’s Employment Security Department (ESD), 332 initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed between March 7 and March 13 with previous two weeks being the next lowest. The fourth lowest recorded week since the state went into lockdown was 380 claims filed in the week of October 25, 2020, to October 31, 2020.

The same can be said statewide, where the last three weeks have seen the lowest number of initial claims filed since this time last year before the pandemic, the next closest coming in October as well. From March 7 to March 13, 11,699 claims were filed statewide with the ESD, while 14,198 – higher than the total filed in each of the last five weeks – were filed from October 18, 2020, to October 24, 2020.

Throughout the pandemic, the ESD has seen a correlation between restrictions and the number of claims filed. Claims hit record numbers in Washington when the state went into lockdown a year ago, with one week in March 2020 totaling over 180,000 claims.

From there, claims slowly decreased into the summer, but always remained at least twice the number filed in the corresponding weeks of the prior year. In the fall, claims increased following governor Inslee’s announcement of tighter restrictions, but with the move into Phase 2 of the new reopening plan, claims have fall again.

With the move into Phase 3 and expected seasonal spring hiring, ESD regional labor economist Anneliese Vance-Sherman said she expects to see unemployment claims continue to trend down into April. However, she warned to expect an increase in claims filed if infection rates start to rise and restrictions are reinforced.

When compared with the corresponding week in 2020, the number of claims filed statewide in the most recently recorded week was actually less. This is also the week when rumors started to spread that Inslee was preparing to close all nonessential business, which the governor ultimately announced March 15. In the week of March 8, 2020, to March 14, 2020, 14,154 claims were filed while 11,699 were filed in the corresponding week this year.

Locally, this did not hold true. Two hundred eighty-four claims were filed in the week ending March 14, 2020, while 332 claims were filed in this year’s corresponding week.

Nationwide, claims increased from the previous week. In the week ending March 13, 770,000 initial claims were filed, an increase of 45,000 from the previous week, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. However, the four-week moving average was 746,250, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week. In the week ending March 6, 762,250 claims were filed.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3 percent, an increase of 0.1 percent.

Vance-Sherman said economists observe the unemployment insurance claims to see how many layoffs are occurring. There is evidence of recovery in the market, and industries like construction, where claims are up in but also jobs are up, are growing, she said.

“Overall, I’m optimistic.”