County model suggests that COVID-19 infections may have peaked for now

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What’s happening in Whatcom County to slow the spread of the new coronavirus seems to be working, according to a simulation model created by the Whatcom County Health Department in partnership with Western Washington University (WWU).

Health department director Erika Lautenbach said during an April 14 online press briefing that the model shows signs that the county could be on the downslope of an initial wave of COVID-19 infections.

That’s the good news. The harsher news from the press briefing is that any change to the social distancing restrictions in place will likely increase the spread; if the state’s current stay-at-home order, which expires on May 4, is lifted, the rate of new infections could increase and another wave of the virus could peak later this summer.

“It shows us that returning to life will have to be done gradually,” Lautenbach said. “The way I like to think about it is, it’s more of a dial we’re turning than a switch. We will turn the dial in different ways, and if we see additional spikes we may turn it back.”

The health department and WWU began developing the model before Whatcom County had any confirmed cases and have refined it over time with new data, Lautenbach said. The model, which is a tool for planning, is similar to other models and is informed by King County data, but it takes into account Whatcom County’s population, the date of the first infection here and other local specifics. Models for the state and King County also suggest that the rate of infections may have peaked for now.

Information on the model from Whatcom Unified Command, the multi-government agency responding to the local outbreak, notes that clusters of cases at skilled nursing homes and other places where people live together in big groups create “lumpy” lurches in the rate of new infections that aren’t simulated in the model. Clusters of cases, and larger transmission events here, can have a bigger impact than in King County and other more populated communities, health officials said at the briefing.

“If we have any instances of large community meetings or family gatherings that can turn into spots of spread, they’re going to dramatically impact transmission and infection rates within Whatcom County,” said Steve Bennet, WWU associate professor of health and human development, during the briefing.

As of April 16, 271 people had tested positive for COVID-19 in Whatcom County and 25 had died of the respiratory illness.

The county health department announced 29 new infections between April 9 and 16. That’s less than a third of the number reported during the previous seven-day period, from March 31 to April 7, when the health department reported 99 new cases. Claudia Murphy, a spokesperson for Whatcom Unified Command, cautioned against drawing conclusions from that data.

“There are so many variables that go into the testing and go into the numbers,” she said. “Sometimes it’s as simple as a lab sends us a bunch of results back one day, and none the next.”

Test swabs from Whatcom County are processed at multiple labs including a state lab in Shoreline and a private lab in Bellingham.

Currently, Washington has 10,783 confirmed cases of COVID-19, according to the state department of health. The U.S. has more than 630,000 cases and more than 27,000 deaths. British Columbia has 1,561 confirmed cases and 75 deaths as of April 16 and there are more than two million cases globally, according to Johns Hopkins University’s online tracking dashboard.

Health department recommends canceling summer events

A day after showing its forecast that COVID-19 may increase once people ease up on social distancing, the county health department recommended that all summer events in Whatcom County, including parades, community festivals and fireworks displays, be canceled.

“I recognize that this recommendation creates considerable disappointment,” Lautenbach said in a press release. “However, the long-term health of our community and our economy could be further damaged if we move too quickly to resume the activities that we know will put us at risk.”

PeaceHealth well below capacity throughout first wave

If a first surge of infections peaked, it didn’t stress Whatcom County’s hospital capacity, officials said. PeaceHealth St. Joseph Medical Center’s director of communications and marketing, Beverly Mayhew, said the hospital has had considerably fewer patients than normal in the emergency department, ICU and main nursing units since the outbreak began. PeaceHealth had eight patients positive with COVID-19 on April 14, and five were awaiting test results. The hospital has “ample capacity to handle an influx of COVID patients, should they arrive,” Mayhew said.

In response to a question about whether the situation at PeaceHealth supports the county health department’s suggestion that the rate of new infections may have peaked for now, Mayhew emailed a statement from PeaceHealth chief medical officer Sudhakar Karlapudi.

The statement said, in part: “Here’s what we are keeping in mind: All mathematical models are just that, they are models. Every day we carefully review all available information to understand our readiness to take care of all COVID-19 patients and our other patients who have other serious medical problems. Our number one priority is to provide a safe environment for all patients and caregivers, and our strategy is to be nimble and adapt rapidly to the constantly changing needs of the community.”

Planning documents from Whatcom Unified Command suggest that the curve in the rate of hospital admissions could be 10 to 14 days behind the curve of new infections.

One additional case at Stafholt

In the past week, one additional resident at Good Samaritan Society – Stafholt in Blaine tested positive for COVID-19, a spokesperson for the North Dakota-based Good Samaritan Society said on April 14. In total, 13 residents at the Blaine skilled nursing facility have tested positive.

No additional staff members have tested positive, said Shawn Neisteadt, spokesperson for the Good Samaritan Society. Three employees and two contracted medical providers who previously tested positive have recovered and are now healthy, he said.

Community PPE donations

Community members and local organizations have donated more than 50,000 gloves, 50,000 masks and respirators and more than 17,000 isolation gowns to Whatcom Unified Command since COVID-19 arrived in Whatcom County, according to a press release from the organization.

A variety of other personal protective equipment (PPE) such as face shields, respirator cartridges, shoe covers and touchless thermometers have also been donated to unified command. Unified command has distributed donations to more than 85 organizations serving Whatcom County residents, including first responders, nursing homes, hospitals, public transportation, doctors, in-home care providers and shelters.

Unified command’s procedure for receiving donations is strict. Learn how to donate at whatcomcovid.com/donations.

Unified command working to open isolation facilities

Whatcom Unified Command has secured a former motel building in Bellingham for isolating and quarantining COVID-19 patients, and it is working on securing other facilities throughout Whatcom County for the same purpose.

The facilities would be for those who have symptoms but do not require hospitalization and can’t safely isolate at home.

“The intent is to have location options at population centers around the county,” said John Wolpers, unified command incident commander.

County businesses no longer eligible to apply for state grants

The Washington State Department of Commerce is no longer accepting applications from Whatcom and 18 other counties for its Working Washington Small Business Emergency Grant program due to an “overwhelming volume” of applications.

The program is funded by up to $5 million from the governor’s Strategic Reserve Fund and is administered by the state department of commerce. It will provide a limited number of businesses with up to $10,000.

A spokesperson from the department of commerce wasn’t immediately available to discuss how many businesses will receive the grants.

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